• Arete@lemmy.world
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    9 months ago

    You’re including both civilian and soldier deaths (which is what Hamas wants you to do, don’t help them). Best estimates are now 8-10k Hamas soldiers, 16-18k civilians.

    • blargerer@kbin.social
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      9 months ago

      Show me the methodology because that’s basically saying 100% of adult male deaths are Hamas soldiers. Smells like bullshit to me. I’d bet the number is closer to 1k than 10k.

      • ralphio@lemmy.world
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        9 months ago

        Yeah I’m pretty sure this is Israel’s methodology for calculating Hamas deaths, 100% of adult men are soldiers. It’s obviously a lie but I do believe that’s where the number comes from.

      • Arete@lemmy.world
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        9 months ago

        You think Israel dropped 25,000 bombs, invaded, and has been waging urban combat for 4 months, but has only killed 1,000 Hamas militants? That’s just silly.

        Also Hamas uses child soldiers extensively (including as suicide bombers) so you can drop the “adult” part.

    • athos77@kbin.social
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      9 months ago

      If Israel isn’t differentiating between civilians and soldiers when they shoot and bomb people, I don’t see why I should.

      • Arete@lemmy.world
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        9 months ago

        It doesn’t fit your narrative, but the civilian/military casualty numbers are on the high side of normal for urban combat.

        Super weird to defend distributing Hamas propaganda. Helping them hurts Palestinians too, who generally don’t like Hamas.

          • Arete@lemmy.world
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            9 months ago

            Did I take a position on the genocide question? No.

            I stated 2 facts, which you seem to find inconvenient for your narrative. We don’t have a disagreement, unless you’re disputing them?

        • OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
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          9 months ago

          It doesn’t fit your narrative, but the civilian/military casualty numbers are on the high side of normal for urban combat.

          If you use the numbers kindly provided by the IDF, you mean? Don’t they have a pretty substantial motivation to lie?

          • Arete@lemmy.world
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            9 months ago

            Oh they definitely exaggerate - all parties to a conflict do. I accounted for that by using their estimates from more than a month ago against Hamas’s current casualty counts. I think that’s a fairly even-handed take but I’m sure people will disagree.

            • OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
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              9 months ago

              Yeah I mean I would definitely disagree because that estimate was mysteriously in line with assuming every single man killed (at that point) was in Hamas. Even saying half of all men killed seems pretty generous

              • Arete@lemmy.world
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                9 months ago

                Unfortunately I think we need to be drawing from the “children” numbers here. Hamas uses teenage soldiers extensively, and they have every incentive to put them on the front lines and report them under the “dead children” numbers.

                My personal belief, and feel free to disagree, is that the numbers look something like this:

                Hamas militants killed: 3000 adults, 5000 children (aged 16 - 18), all male. Totaling 8000.

                Civilians killed: 5000 children, 5000 women, 8000 men. Totalling 18000.

                • filister@lemmy.world
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                  9 months ago

                  Even those numbers seem to be highly exaggerated to me, not to mention the moral question about whether teenagers deserve to be killed, or maimed. Don’t forget that Gaza’s population is around 2.4M, and the Hamas militants are estimated around 30K, so even if we think that the male population of Gaza is like 600K, 30K is like 5%. Assuming that they were not using high precision munitions and deliberately were using a lot stronger bombs in this conflict I highly doubt that your number is even close to the actual casualties.

                  Unfortunately I believe we will never learn the actual figures because both sides would try to exaggerate/downplay those numbers.

                  Plus I highly doubt that all the targets were legitimate military targets. Right now it looks like a vendetta to me, where Israel is trying to make the whole region inhabitable and make the life of regular Palestinians with no affiliation to any terrorist organization a hell. And guess what? That’s not a good recipe for peace or anything

                  • OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
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                    9 months ago

                    Assuming that they were not using high precision munitions and deliberately were using a lot stronger bombs in this conflict I highly doubt that your number is even close to the actual casualties.

                    Yeah I think there was a report that about half of the bombs dropped have been “dumb” bombs that aren’t used for precise targeting. So based on your math from those you would expect it to be about 5% Hamas to 95% “ah well sorry you were just born in the wrong place” innocent people. The other half may have been targeted better, but we don’t even really know that.

                    You’re right that we will probably never learn. But my guess would be maybe 10% Hamas to 90% whoopsy daisy oh my god so sorry about that.

                • athos77@kbin.social
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                  9 months ago

                  It must be nice to just make up numbers and ages and sexes and occupations like that. Makes it real easy to justify genocide.

    • ElCanut@jlai.lu
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      9 months ago

      Yet you have no proof for your numbers, while the UN literally said that those from the health ministry of Gaza, so in the 25-30k range, are correct

      • Kalkaline @leminal.space
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        9 months ago

        Not arguing your point, just adding to it.

        The health ministry in Gaza is run by Hamas, full disclaimer, however it’s the best data out there despite coming from a source that could provide some bias. Even if you consider some of those included could be Hamas combatants, the vast majority likely were not, so you’re still trying to justify thousands of innocent civilians deaths because of a disproportionate response to the Hamas attack.

        • ElCanut@jlai.lu
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          9 months ago

          Exactly, and Hamas would probably not be the only source of information in Gaza if Israel didn’t kill dozens of journalists working there

        • davepleasebehave@lemmy.world
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          9 months ago

          also, because Israel has enforced concentration camp conditions on the people of Gaza, they are well aware of who lives and who does there. they are, unsurprisingly,.not really happy to release their estimates.

      • Arete@lemmy.world
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        9 months ago

        Yeah for total deaths. Mine add up to 26k. These numbers have never been civilian only.