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Cake day: July 5th, 2023

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  • If history is any guide, it seems Israel is steadily moving to the right in order to support the status quo. If this trend continues, especially in light of having to live with having killed tens of thousands of people, there will be significant repression of dissenting voices, Israeli Arab and Israeli Jew. It’s difficult to believe that the level of dehumanization needed to accept what they did in Gaza would just dissipate into thin air after the last shot is fired. I think more likely it would continue its life in the form of repression against the Israeli Arab minority and when they’re repressed enough, against non-true-Jews, i.e. lefties and other non-cobformant minorities. I don’t think that would lead to a prosperous, democratic state.







  • If you stop thinking about the metadata (the financial part) of the system and instead you look at the real system in terms of resources available for ensuring a decent standard of living, you might possibly find that the working population can farm, manufacture and service its own and it’s retired population’s needs. China could make the reforms needed to adjust the meta to fit the real system that supports this standard of living. It might for example remove failed markets from parts of the economy such as retirement savings, replacing them with universal pensions. Of course this isn’t unique to China, but such reforms depend on how firmly a nation has bought into the neoliberal ideology. My point is that in general, the financial part of the system never matches the real. There’s always discrepancies (e.g. positive and negative externalities to name some) large or small. It’s a model. It seems to me that we often make the mistake to consider just the model and drive real decisions and predictions based on it even when it drastically diverges from reality, sometimes with horrific consequences. E.g. the model says increasing extraction of fossil fuels is fine when we have scientific proof it isn’t.





  • For the sake of argument, picture BYD getting much larger subsidies that allows it to sell EVs for half the price of anything European autos can sustainably produce. As a result Europeans overwhelmingly buy BYD over European EVs. Given that EVs are mandated to be the vast majority of cars sold in the near future, that’s Europeans buying very few European cars. Picture this persisting over long enough period to exhaust any savings European autos have. Such an event would result in a significant devaluation of European autos as well as outright bankruptcies. Followed by many thousands of Europeans losing well paying union jobs. Followed by BYD scooping up European autos brands and assets. If you see the downsides for Europe in this picture, perhaps you’d see why you or the EC might care differently about European autos subsidies versus Chinese ones. Perhaps this makes it make sense.