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Cake day: July 12th, 2023

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  • Even so, NATO wouldn’t kerb-stomp Russia.

    Completely obliterating its government, industrial capacity, trade, and military would lead to a collapse of that country, fracturing of its territory, and probably heaps more political headaches down the road as the power dynamic is altered.

    NATO would aspire to remove Russia from non-Russian territory in most areas, probably including Transnistria but excluding Syria and Africa. They would probably seek regime change, but the old guard of Russian politics would be preserved. They want to return the status-quo ante bellum.

    The US and NATO would always seek the Japan option and not the Iraq option. Japan surendered and basically became an autonomous industrial client state of the US for a long time. Iraq dissolved into civil wars and became an unhealing wound that continually sprouted infections like ISIS and became a playground for bad actors like Iran.

    Even after the collapse of the soviet union, the US financially propped up some industries in Russia, like their spaceflight industry.