The front lines where Ukraine and its allies had hoped for a summer breakthrough now epitomize the bleak, dark winter ahead — of Russian resurgence and Kyiv’s mounting losses.
“As we like to say in the army, the plan was good on paper, but we forgot about the trenches,” joked Ihor, a commander in the 15th National Guard. CNN is only using his first name to protect his identity for security reasons. Speaking with CNN deep in a command post in Orikhiv, in southern Ukraine, he is interrupted by panicked noises in the radio room.
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The Ukrainians face relentless waves of Russian convict recruits, properly trained and equipped, backed by armor, and often – they believe – given a mix of drugs to bolster their attack. Ukrainian soldiers showed CNN drone footage of an injured Russian, his legs severed, yet a ghoulish smile on his face, seemingly oblivious to the pain.
Those fighting in besieged Ukrainian trenches say they now face another threat: the use of gas as a weapon. Nine incidents have been recorded in recent weeks in this area, one Ukrainian combat medic told CNN, in which a caustic and flammable gas had been dropped by drones onto Ukrainian lines, causing one fatality. The gas is used to cause panic and followed by conventional shelling or drone attacks, soldiers impacted said.
I’m an armchair colonel. But I think Ukies are not committing fully to the offensive for fear of high casualties and the bad PR it brings. However, the Russian people have shown to be immune to losing thousands of soldiers since they are completely cowed by Putin. This means a battle of attrition will favor the Russians. Ukies have no choice but to yolo like it is Verdun if it ever seeks to win this war. They need to KO the Russians in one blow and push them out of Ukraine. Only then can the ukies hunker down again and weather the human waves.
The staleness of the war feel very much like WW1. WW1 was not won at the frontlines. It was won by the industry and the logistics networks. Ukraine needs a way to harm the Russian industry and logistics, while getting more support of the western economies.